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Equities and commodities scaled back – RoRo meter moved to level 2

RoRo meter from 3 to 2

At an extraordinary meeting held on 1 July, the Union Investment Committee (UIC) decided to lower the risk level in the UIC portfolio by reducing the exposures to equities and commodities and increasing holdings of safe government bonds in return. As a result, the risk positioning has shifted from neutral (RoRo meter at level 3) to moderately defensive (RoRo meter at level 2).

In the industrialised countries, concerns about a potential recession have continued to mount in recent days. Uncertainty about companies’ profit expectations, which had so far remained fairly stable, is now growing. It is currently unclear when this bout of uncertainty will reach its peak and which companies may be affected. Against this backdrop, the UIC has decided to scale back the exposures to equities from industrialised countries and from emerging markets by 1 percentage point each. At the same time, the overall weighting of fixed-income assets in the portfolio is being raised to a neutral level.

In light of the increased level of uncertainty, a slight underweight has also been established in the commodities segment. Within the commodities asset class, the UIC has reduced the weighting of the energy sector by 1 percentage point because high product prices increasingly seem to be putting a damper on consumer spending. Refinery margins reached a new high a few days ago and have been contracting since then. The UIC expects that this downward trend will continue and that prices for oil products will start to fall. On the other hand, the exposure to industrial metals has been increased slightly (up by 0.5 percentage points) because conditions in China are stabilising after a round of lockdowns to contain the spread of coronavirus.

Our positioning

UIC
As at 1 July 2022.

 

Unless otherwise noted, all information and illustrations are as at 1 July 2022.

Market news and expert views

Market news and expert views: July 2022

Economy, growth, inflation and monetary policy – the monthly report ‘Market news and expert views’ will keep you informed about the latest developments and our expert assessments. It will also give you a comprehensive review of and outlook for the relevant asset classes.
(As at 1 July 2022)